Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Indian Equity: NSE ANANT RAJ- Powerful Company & Hidden Gem in Real Estate in National Capital Region:

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On 20th July Anant Raj have touched Upper Circuit.

  1. Demerger of real estate division of Anant Raj Agencies Private Limited into Tauras Promoters & Developers Private Limited and subsequent amalgamation of remaining ARAPL with the company," the NCR-based real estate company in its filing.
  2.  Anant Raj shares are locked at 20 percent upper circuit intraday Wednesday, hitting fresh 52-week high of Rs 56.45 after the board of directors decided to demerge real estate and project divisions.
  3.  Demerger of project division of the company into Anant Raj Global.  AND  made it wholly owned subsidiary Anant Raj Global in due course to be listed on BSE & NSE.
  4.  Anant Raj's shareholders will get one share of Anant Raj Global for every one share held
  5. The rationale behind the demerger of real estate division of Anant Raj Agencies Private Limited into Tauras Promoters & Developers Private Limited is elimination of layer of promoter investment company and streamlining promoting holding structure of Anant Raj.
  6. After the implementation of scheme of arrangement, promoters and non-promoters' shareholding in Anant Raj will remain at 63.44 percent and 36.56 percent, respectively. Anant Raj Global will have same shareholding pattern (promoters - 63.44 percent and non-promoters - 36.56 percent) against 100 percent stake by promoters earlier.
  7. Anant Raj's profit in the year ended March 2016 fell significantly to Rs 64.2 crore from Rs 142.38 crore in FY15 and revenue also declined to Rs 433.07 crore from Rs 484 crore in same period.
  8. Anant Raj Agencies had revenue of Rs 2.43 crore in FY16.
  9. Anant Raj Global is under incorporation. Project division, which reported turnover of Rs 138.33 crore in FY16 (contributing 31.94 percent to total turnover of listed entity Anant Raj), has executed or in process of executing several projects realted to construction of IT parks, residential projects, township projects, SEZ, malls and commercial projects.
  10. As of March 2015, the company had equity worth Rs 4,133 crore and debt of Rs 984 crore.
  11. "This company has assets that could be at least worth Rs 10,000 crore while the debt is Rs 1,000 crore.
  12. Stil, its market cap stands at about Rs 1,500 crore.
  13. The stock price has rallied over 50 percent in the past three months from a low of Rs 34. Still it offers plenty of upside potential for the long-term investor.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Indian Equity Market: Updated 22nd March:Make Federal Bank a part of Portfolio Currently Quoted @Rs.84/- to Rs.89/-approx.




The Share has started picking up on the Bourses. Start Accumulation Would definitely give a better Return in 2018.

Remain Invested in Federal Bank on Long term Sustainable Basis.

Stock is a part of  Strong BANK NIFTY of  12 Stocks.

Working of the Bank is very Disciplined.

In the past ICICI Bank has made bids to acquire this Bank

3rd Quarter Results Substantial Increase in Revenue
Reduction in  NPAs:-
_______________________________________________
                                   Earlier                                    Present
 Gross:                        2.78                                         2.77

Net                              1.69                                         1.58
_______________________________________________

Net Interest Margin:      30%

Loan & Adv Growth:    32%



























Thursday, April 28, 2016

Indian Equity:7th Oct.16, Consolidation in Cement Industry: After NIRMA purchased Lafarge Shares: C.K.Birla group Orient Cement Buys Two Jaypee Cement Units for Rs.2000Crores

Large Indian Cement players are looking for Multistate Manufacturing & Marketing:
_________________________________________________________________________________
If Lafarge-Nirma  and Century Ultratech  deals takes place it would increase consolidation of Cement Manufacturing Capacities in Less number of Hands. Would it increase valuation of Cement Shares?
SWOT Analysis:- 

Strengths:- Expected Demand in:-
  1. Infrastructure Development  
  2. Development of Corridor near Railway Lines
  3. Big Gap of Housing Projects.
  4. Development of Sm art Cities.
  5. Consolidation:- The Cement is a Capital Intensive Industry, for setting it up needs high Investment. The Investment includes Huge Amount of Bank Loans. The Companies not able to meet Bank Repayment dead lines are selling their Plants. Lafarge-Birla AND Jaypee-Ultratech deals in recent past are few examples. 
Opportunities:-
  1.  Already increase in prices in Western India.
  2. Creation of Additional Manufacturing Capacities is very slow.
  3. Expected Heavy   Rainfall which would give momentum to Civil Construction  
Weaknesses:-
  1. Capital Intensive requiring very high Capital Investment. 
Threats:-
In immediate future no threat is visible
Companies Recommended

  1. PAN India:-Ultratech &ACC
  2. Northern India: J.K.Laxmi-Manglam
  3. Southern India: Ambuja & Dalmia Bharat
Purchase Cement Shares on every fall.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Indian Equity: Updated on 17th Sep.16:1. Hold Stock of Sugar companies:

Sept.17,2016:
Better Margin for Sugar Companies hence Higher valuation for Sugar Shares: As prices in the International Mkt. is firming up & also increasing as follows:-

  1. Season2015-16:  Sugar Production declined by 11% to 25.2 Million Tonnes.
  2. In Season2016-17: Expected decline by 8% to 23.2Million tonnes

Sept.5,2016: Indications are that the Bright future for Sugar Industry started. In Season starting from 1st Oct.2016 to 31st
Oct.17  Sugar Industry would be in earning Mode. 
June 14,2016: Stock of Renuka Sugar gained Rs4/- today.

24th May2016:-In the Range Bound Market of Today: Sugar Shares are One of the Best: Three Shares are recommended. Shree Renuka, Shakti Sugars and Dalmia Bharat  

21st May 2016:-

1.The Govt. of India has withdrawan Export Subsidy on Sugar:

2.The business restructuring carried out at debt-laden Sakthi SugarsBSE -1.24 % has been successful and the company, which failed in two successive CDRs, has a better future now. Tamil Nadu based Sakthi Sugars owed Rs 1,100 crore to five banks. Even at the numbers below the current sugar prices restructuring leave the company in a situation where the Debt Servicing Capability is good and assured with a certain amount of buffer as well, Arcil, the country's oldest asset reconstruction company (ARC), bought 50 per cent of Rs 1,100 crore loan taken from five banks led by Bank of India and its internal teams started working on the restructuring from 2014. As part of a three-pronged solution, Arcil wrote off a part of the bad debt, converted Rs 61 crore of its debt for a 19 per cent equity and also refinanced one of the group companies which was given a loan by Sakthi Sugars, he said. One of the group companies, was given a loan by the parent, now been refinanced for a period of four years, thereby helping the cash flows of Sakthi Sugars. Failed the CDR twice, in 2009 and 2013, and Arcil has time till 2022 to be with the company Fees, coupon on the loan and equity upside."
Restoring value in a business.
Volatile sugar industry, subject to government-set minimum support price, caps on exports and other restrictions, Banks holding the security receipts will be able to redeem above par, also be able to sell their security receipts (SRs) in the secondary
market . The company had reported Rs 20.05 crore loss on a revenue of Rs 147.33 crore for the quarter ended December.Sakthi Sugars stocks closed 2.6 per cent down at Rs 37 on the BSE , as against a 1.19 per cent correction in the benchmark Sensex.
 During 2016 Stocks of Sugar Producers soared 82%. Declining Global Production and rising Global Prices.

Domestic Production down by4.43%

17Months high in International Future Market in Chicago.

Sugar Cycle Moves in Two years On-Off Cycles.Currently On Cycle.

Expected Increase in End User Realization Prices.



Sugar prices have witnessed an uptrend in global markets supported by
prospects for a deeper global deficit in 2015-16 than initially
forecast, thus increasing expectations for tight supplies.
Moreover, strength in the Brazilian real coupled with weakness in the US dollar  index have also acted as a positive for the dollar-denominated sugar prices. 

Taking cues from the firmness seen in overseas markets along with improved export demand and lower production forecast for this season, sugar has

seen a decent rally on the NCDEX an appreciation in the rupee

capped further gains in the sweetener on the domestic bourses.


Recently, the Rabobank raised its sugar deficit estimate to 6.8 million tonnes from 4.7 million tonnes, while FO Licht hiked its estimate to 7.2 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes. The deeper deficit is largely due to poor Asian crop led by unfavourable weather conditions, especially a reduction seen in output from India, Thailand and China. ISMA expects the country's overall production to stand at around 25.5-26 million tonnes for 2015-16 against 28.3 million tonnes produced last season.
Indian mills have scaled back expectations of sugar output due to
drought, notably in Maharashtra, a major growing region, and Karnataka, the third biggest producer. The association also updated that Indian millers have contracted around 1.4 million tonnes of sugar to export this current season against Minimum Indicative Export Quota (MIEQ), out of which about 1 million tonne has already been exported.
From a short-term perspective, NCDEX SUGAR MAY contract has a key
resistance at Rs 3,440, which, if crossed, can be seen approaching Rs 3,470- Rs 3,500- Rs 3,530 levels, whereas supports can be seen at Rs 3,420- Rs 3,400- Rs 3,380- Rs 3,350 levels.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Indian Equity Market:Metal:Updated on 13th September: Steel Sector Tata Steel:

13th Sept.2016:- Tata Steel:
Q1-2016 Loss Rs.3183/-Crores.
SWOT analysis of Tata Steel Proposed Effective Restructuring of its Foreign Business::-

Strengths:- Very Good Plants in 

·         Port Talbot,

·         Netherland,

·         Speciality Steel in Yorkshire,

·         and Pipe Mills in Hartle Pool.

Weaknesses :- High Cost of running Plants and British Steel pension Fund,

 Opportunities:-For Ist Two Plants possibility of 50:50 Joint Venture Between  Tata Steel & Thyssen Krupp Germany.

Proposed 25% Investment by British Government.

Purchase of Last Two Plants by Mr Sanjeev Gupta Indian Origin Business Man of UK.

Threats :- To explore Possibility of Cost Reduction by 100 Million Pound.
Suitable outcome for British Steel Pension Scheme1.30 Lac Members and deficit Pound 70Crores. Discussion with British Trade unions.
Total Borrowings:-Rs.75259/- Crores as on 30th June 2016: Rs.71798/-Crores including European Business Rs.22500 /- Crores.



10th July 2016:-
A.Buy back of Shares by Coal India Ltd is a certainty: The Successful completion of Shares by Seven subsidiaries have resulted in Huge Cash in the Hands of Coal India Ltd. and available for buy back of its own Shares. 


2nd June 2016:- Coal India Ltd.(CIL) has increased its Product prices by 5%. CIL share has picked up on BSE.

24th May 2016:-
Coal India Ltd.:-  This Share is now totally bottomed out. At Current Valuation the Share is strongly recommended to Purchase.

24th May 2016:

Buy Tata Steel at around Rs.325/-
Earlier News:-
Tata Steel is still favourite of Bourses at Current of Rs345/- the Share Seems Attractive. Target is Rs.400/- 
MIP to provide temporary relief to steel industry:
Other Factors are also Counting:-
  1. Adverse demand-supply equation that the Steel industry is likely to face in the short to medium term, it said. 
  2. Poor Demand Growth:- India's steel consumption growth improved driven by automobile and construction sectors. 
 Tata Steel saw its consolidated net profit during April-December 2015 shrink to one-tenth of what it was a year ago. With its overseas operations facing headwinds too, the company booked an impairment charge of over 7,900 crore on its European business in the September quarter.
 
There is an inverse correlation between the prices of the US dollar and commodities.
With dollar index peaking, sectors like metals, mining may outperform Defensives  

Moderation in the US dollar is usually positive for Indian equities and currency. 
The fall in the dollar may lead many investors to increase their allocation to cyclical stocks than to defensive stocks.
MIP 'game changer' for steel;
The government has decided to impose a minimum import price for steel products, something that is likely to make import prices of the alloy costlier than local prices. What does this mean for Indian companies?
 The government has decided to impose a minimum import price for
    steel products, something that is likely to make import prices of
    the alloy costlier than local prices. What does this mean for Indian
    companies?
It is a bold move, a minimum import
price (MIP) for steel products that is likely to make many imported
steel products costlier than domestic ones. This comes following months
of complaints from steel companies that cheap Chinese imports were
undercutting Indian steel companies and hitting their margins.
Following the decision, the MIP for hot rolled coil (HRC) steel has been
set at USD 450 per tonne, which would result in a landed price of about
USD 600 per tonne after customs and safeguard duty. The ruling domestic
price of HRC steel is about USD 500 per tonne, something that will
likely move up around or before the government's MIP directive comes
into effect on March 1.
It is the first time in 15 years the country has imposed MIP -- and said it would give a much needed shot in the arm to local steel companies,
which have suffered from over a year of falling prices.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Indian Finance: Updated on 2nd Aug. 2016:SMILE-Soft Loan for MICRO,SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISE: MUDRA Small Bank Loans for Traders, Cottage Industries and Retailers under various Bank Schemes Ranging from Rs.10Lacs to Rs.1Crore


For Expansion,Modernization & Technological upgradation to MSME sector. Manufacturing & Processing companies.

  1. Repayment period 7 years
  2. For Soft Loan Interest Rate for 3 yrs.9.35
  3. Term Loan Interest Rate 9.45 to 9.95 period is Three years only. 
  4. After Three years Normal Rate of Interest.
Reg. Ensuring Lower Cost of Funding . Offering of Services as Free-Lance CFO:  Assignment on Hourly/ Retainer-ship basis: 
May I take liberty to encroach upon your valuable time to help you in a systematic Manner: so that Bankers understand your Business Plans . To, ensure Good valuation for Funding through Regular & Systematic Steps in right direction as follows:-    
A. Books of Accounts:-
  1. At present Govt. of India has sponsored various Bank Loan Schemes without Collateral. For That a detailed review of Current Operation is required.
  2. Recognize Business Strengths Concentrate on the same & would definitely get Finance. 
  3. Strong Management Information System created out of Streamlined Processes, supported by Budgeting & Performance Measurement & Monitoring. 
Timely reporting with desired compliance and Crystal Clean Books of Accounts. It would ensure greater visibility of operating Parameter.Visibility of Operations Performance is very vital for the organization:
Keeping Accounts ready always. Maintaining Confidentiality of All Sensitive-  Documents and Agreements. Compliance, Process-Management. 
  1. MUDRA:- Loan under this Scheme are without any Collateral.
    Small entrepreneurs under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana,  developing "personal sector" to become self-sufficient, start businesses and generate new employment avenues..
    Loans between Rs. 50,000 and Rs. 10 lakh are provided to small entrepreneurs.
    The Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency Ltd (MUDRA) focuses on the 5.75 crore self-employed who use funds totalling Rs. 11 lakh crore and provide jobs to 12 crore people.The banking sector has been allocated an overall disbursement target of
    about Rs. 1.22 lakh crore during 2015-16 for Mudra loans.
    D.MUDRA Yojana will be refinance for lending to micro businesses/units.
    1. Shishu: covering loans upto Rs. 50,000/-
    2. Kishor: covering loans above Rs. 50,000/- and upto Rs. 5 lakh
    3. Tarun: covering loans above Rs. 5 lakh and upto Rs. 10 lakh
    Businesses/entrepreneurs/units covered would include:-
    1. Proprietorship/partnership firms running as small manufacturing units, Shopkeepers, Fruits/Vegetable Sellers, hair cutting saloon, beauty parlours, transporters, truck operators, hawkers, co-operatives or body of individuals, food service units, repair shops, machine operators,small industries, artisans, food processors, self help groups, professionals and service providers etc. in rural and urban areas with financing requirements upto Rs 10 lakh.
    2. Sector/activity specific schemes, such as schemes for business activities in Land Transport, Community, Social & Personal Services,Food Product and Textile Product sectors. Schemes would similarly be added for other sectors / activities.
    Schemes:-
    1. Micro Credit Scheme (MCS)
    2. Refinance Scheme for Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) / Scheduled
    Co-operative Banks
    3. Mahila Uddyami Scheme
    4. Business Loan for Traders & Shopkeepers
    5.Missing Middle Credit Scheme
    6. Equipment Finance for Micro Units

For more details please contact undersigned.
With Warm Regards,
                  Ashok Agarwala
                                                      7228805981

    Saturday, January 16, 2016

    Indian Equity Market: Up dated 16th Sept.16:Lower Revenue for Indian I.T. Cos.: facing Volatile Macro Economic Conditions-World over:



    16th Sept.2016:-
    Post Brexit: Volatile Macroeconomic Conditions in Europe.
    Lower Revenue Expected for IT Comapnies: Main Reasons are:-
    Main Dependance are on U.S. and U.K.
    Decline in consulting Business.
    In India Finacle and other BFSI is showing declining trend.
    High Foreign Currency Fluctuations,
    Large Deals even though finalized, taking more time than expected to take off/Complete. Immenient uncertainty has compelled Clients World over to delay IT Projects & reduce discretionary spendings.
    US Federal Reserve keeping its Interest Rate at Record low
    Hence earlier recommendation of 15th July 2016 is not continuing.
    15th July2016:
    Strong Recommendation for Continuing with TCS &Infosis.




    TCS Q4 revenue growth marginally beats expectations










    TCS rated world's most powerful brand in IT Services: Report

    Scoring highly on a wide variety of measures such as familiarity,

    loyalty, staff satisfaction and corporate reputation, Tata Consultancy

    Services (TCS) emerged as the IT services industry's most powerful brand

    with a score of 78.3 points earning it an AA+ rating has been rated as the world's most powerful brand in Information Technology Services by a leading global brand valuation firm, Brand Finance's 2016 annual report evaluated thousands of the world's top brands to determine which are the most powerful and the most valuable. "TCS' customer focus has been central to its recent success, but a

    closer look at our data shows strong and improving scores for brand

    investment and staff satisfaction too," said David Haigh, CEO, Brand

    Finance. "It has emerged as a dominant force in the IT services industry and is the strongest brand in the sector. Its brand power is indisputable,"Haigh said.According to the report, TCS is also the fastest growing brand within its industry over the last 6 years. The company's overall brand value has increased from USD 2.34 billion in 2010 (when the first evaluation of the TCS brand was conducted) to USD 9.4 billion in 2016. The efforts of our 344,000 employees

    our best brand ambassadors have helped our brand strength to be rated at
    the top of our industry," said N Chandrasekaran, CEO and Managing
    Director of TCS.
     

    1. Growth from outsourcing becomes harder to generate or the erstwhile levels of growth from outsourcing becomes harder to generate, 
    2.  In this volatile Market Choose TCS and HCL Tech are recommended.
    * Second-largest software firm Infosys today

     Aikido services, bringing the power of intelligent systems,
    automation and software to amplify the skills and imaginations of our people," 
    Share Price Rs 1,126.55          


    Particulars Period   F.Y.   Rs.Crores   Revenue       Net Profit


    Liquid Assets         31.12.15                            31526                          

                                 30.09.15                            32099

    Quarter ending       31.12.15                                                         US$240 Crore         US$ 52.40 Crores

                                 31.12.15                                                          Rs.15902 Crore       Rs.3465 Crores
                                                                                                                          
    Quarter Ending      30.09.15                                                         Rs.15635 Crores       Rs.3398 Crores

    Quarter ending      31.12.14                                                         Rs.13796Crores        Rs.3250 Crores
    Revenue                                                                                                    

    Current fiscal constant Currency Revenue guidance upwards to 12.8-13.2 per cent.





    B.Analysis of3rd Quarter Results of TCS Mumbai-:
    1. Revenue rose just 0.5% sequentially,if exchange rate fluctuations were eliminated, and shrank 0.3% otherwise.
    2. The third-quarter performance makes it unlikely that the nation's top software exporter will beat Nasscom's industry growth guidance of 12-14%for fiscal 2016.  TCS
    3. IT spending to shrink as much as 5.5% in 2015.volatility, uncertainty and an adverse currency.
    4. TCS' revenue for the quarter rose 0.5% sequentially to $4.14 billion in constant currency terms. On the same basis, and after factoring in the impact of the floods, analysts on average had expected about 0.8% growth. In rupee terms, TCS reported sequential revenue growth of 0.7% to Rs 27,364 crore. Profit after tax was flat at $926 million. In rupee terms, the net profit rose 0.9% sequentially to Rs 6,109 crore. Operating margin contracted 0.48 percentage point to 26.6%.
    5. Digital, one of the bright spots for the company in the recent past,also slowed.
    6. Revenue from India, which contributes about 6% to the total,fell 6.7% sequentially. Revenue from international markets grew 1.1% sequentially.
      North America, which accounts for 53.5% of revenue, grew 1.4% sequentially, but in the UK, a market that contributes about 16%, revenue fell 0.7%. 
    7. Most of the UK contraction has been attributed to the continuing weakness in TCS' insurance platform, Diligenta. "still need a quarter before Diligenta bottoms out. Business demand and order inflow remains intact
    8. Rival Accenture, which recently reported results for its fiscal first quarter ended November 30, posted double-digital growth in its digitalbusiness

    C.Wipro quarter ended December 31

    In-line with Analyst Expectations.


    "A pick-up in large deal closures led by Global Infrastructure Services. 
    Customers want to simplify operations, optimize their IT spend while investing in Digital to transform their business & are well-positioned ,"


    *Net profit: *

    Quarter ended 
    December 31, 2015,           December 31, 2014
    Rs. 2,234 crore              Rs. 2192crore

    Increase of around 2% year-on-year.

    *Dividend:*

    Interim dividend of Rs.5 per equity share of par value Rs.2/- each

    *Outlook for March Quarter - Guidance:*

     IT Services business to be in the range of $ 1,875 million to $1,912 million. 

    Expectation for Next Financial Year.

    *IT Services Segment: *

      • IT services segment Profit rose to Rs 2,480 crore ($375 million), while margins stand at 20.2%.
      • IT services segment Non-GAAP constant currency revenue in dollar terms grew 1.4% sequentially and grew 6.3% YoY.  
      • Headcount of 170,664 
      • Added 39 new customers during the quarter.

    *Large deals:*

    Signed a Definitive agreement to acquire Viteos Group, a BPaaS provider for Alternative Investment Management Industry.

    Winning Large Deals globally  Wipro has entered into a multi-year global infrastructure support engagement with one of the largest medical devices companies in the world.

    Standardization & Simplification:-  Wipro will standardize and simplify the customer's IT infrastructure across multiple service lines and in over 90 countries.

    "Acquisition:-During the quarter, competitive differentiation BY Acquisition of Two high-potential companies - Cellent and Viteos,"

    "Business Continuity Plans:-Impact of Chennai floods minimized significantly by strong execution of our robust Business Continuity Plans (BCP). The additional expenses incurred in deploying BCP impacted